the latest...

**Our local airport down in Gaggal hit 99ºF/37ºC this afternoon -- one of the warmest days of the entire 2017 summer season.

Saturday, May 27, 2017

rare thunderless day... (pm.27.may.17)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 68.5F (20.3C)
High temp: 86.0F (30.0C)
Rainfall: none

WHAT??  No shower(s) today?  And no thunder?  It's quite an accomplishment, considering the fact that we have had at least some mountain thunder on every single day since the 9th of May, except for the 19th -- that's 17 of the last 19 days (including today).  There wasn't rainfall on all of those days, but rumbling thunder up-mountain has had us on our toes for a long time.  The first cloud development along the Dhauladhars got started very late, around the noon hour, and never really progressed -- and that allowed us to enjoy a mostly sunny Saturday.  My high temp was the warmest I've recorded since the 15th of the month.

Here across Himalayan north India we are stuck mid-way between a swirling area of low pressure aloft which is centered over northern Tibet, and a strong area of high pressure aloft which is parked over eastern Saudi Arabia.  The upper-level flow between these two dominant weather features is keeping north-northwesterly winds in the higher levels of the atmosphere in play across our area.  Random pockets of cooler air embedded in weak circulations in that upper-level flow overrunning a very warm summertime air mass in the lower levels is a recipe for fluctuating instability along the Himalayan ranges.  This situation is not going to budge much before the latter part of next week -- so though we got a much-welcomed break in the action today, I'm afraid we're going to have to remain braced for scattered shower and thunderstorms anyway.  Very honestly and frankly, thunderstorm development right here along the Dhauladhars in this kind of pattern is best predicted with the flip of a coin.

Temperatures have been slightly above normal the last couple of days, but we will likely cool off a few degrees again during the first part of next week, before the next surge of heat pushes in by the following weekend.

Friday, May 26, 2017

stats update... (pm.26.may.17)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 62.4F (16.9C) -- at 3:05pm during rain/hail
High temp: 85.6F (29.8C) -- at 1:20pm
Rainfall: 0.33" (8mm)

Thursday, May 25, 2017

weekend warming... (pm.25.may.17)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
High temp: 83.4F (28.6C)
Rainfall: 0.12" (3mm)

It's been a weird day, temperature-wise, with the low occurring around 2:30pm during our thundershower, and the high temp just an hour before that -- and this evening as we get closer to sunset, the temperature has rebounded to within 2ºF/1ºC of the day's high.  We had full sunshine until the late morning when the customary mountain cloud development began, and then we were back to mostly sunny skies by about 3:30pm after our rather brief period of thundershowers.  As you can see from the stats above, I only received a small amount of rain at my location in the upper part of town.

Today's high was exactly the same as yesterday's, thanks to that blast of thundershowers which occurred right at the time of maximum heating, keeping temps at least 2-3ºF/1-2ºC cooler than they would have been.  But we've still got some impressive warming on the way during the coming three days, as a full-on summertime air mass continues to build across northwest India.  Of course our atmosphere refuses to stabilize completely, so the almost daily thundershower risk along the mountains is hard to remove from the forecast -- but really, the bigger news will be the borderline HOT temps expected over the weekend.  In fact, it still looks like we could be challenging the highest temps of the season and the year.

A large batch of moisture will creep in from the southeast by Monday and Tuesday, as slightly cooler air aloft seeps in... and that will bring in the risk of more significant rainfall for a few days next week.  Thereafter, another major warming trend is being hinted at by extended range models as the first week of June unfolds...

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

himalayan summer... (pm.24.may.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.9F (18.3C)
High temp: 83.4F (28.6C)
Rainfall: none

Cloudiness associated with clusters of thundershowers from western Kashmir into northern Himachal Pradesh can be seen to our north and northwest this evening, but those thundershowers are in their dying phase as the sun sets.  We had another day of nearly full morning sunshine, followed by increasing mountain cloudiness, and then off-and-on rumbles of thunder through the majority of the afternoon.  I never saw so much as a drop of rain, but there could have been some trace amounts of rainfall somewhere around our area.  Temperatures continued their upward climb, as we were expecting.

Today's high temp was just a fraction of a degree shy of the normal high for this date -- and if this weather pattern continues to progress according to plan, we should be rising above normal tomorrow, and stay there all the way through the weekend.  We are right on the eastern fringes of a large area of summertime high pressure which continues to strengthen from eastern Saudi Arabia into Pakistan.  There's still a marginally unstable atmosphere across the western and central Himalayas, however, which keeps us from being able to totally ignore the risk of some mainly PM thundershower development in the vicinity of the mountains.   Friday through Sunday might be our best opportunity to escape that afternoon/evening thunder potential, but even then we're talking about a 10-20% chance of something popping up.

After a very warm weekend, we could see some slight cooling during the first half of next week, along with shower/thunder chances increasing temporarily.  All in all things are not looking terribly out of the ordinary for our mid-summer along the edge of the north Indian Himalayas... in anticipation of pre-monsoon conditions which will start to build during the month of June.