the latest...

**Again, we had the warmest temps of the season and the year today (Wed), but there was also an attempt at some thundershower development during the early afternoon...

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

temps creeping higher... (pm.29.mar.17)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 64.2F (17.9C)
High temp: 77.9F (25.5C)
Rainfall: trace

These crazy-warm temps for late March will be peaking during the next 24-36 hours, with a slow and gradual trend toward more unstable conditions as we move into the weekend.  By early next week, much colder air in the upper atmosphere will push across north India, and it looks like that's going to set us up for some turbulent weather -- especially from Tuesday through Thursday.  Rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and tumbling temperatures are looking likely... but we can hope and pray that it won't end up being as ugly as the latest models are strongly hinting at.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

season's warmest... (pm.28.mar.17)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.3F (17.4C)
High temp: 77.3F (25.2C)
Rainfall: none

It's partly cloudy and hazy this evening at sunset, at the end of a day in which we've notched yet another 'warmest of the season and the year'.  My high temp was about 1ºC cooler than I expected it to be, mainly due to a bit more cloudiness than anticipated, and also the fact that the moisture content of our air mass has increased during the last 12-18 hours or so.  Still, we're running way above normal for the end of March -- more in the normal/average zone for the end of April.

The high pressure ridge which has been responsible for our dry and unseasonably warm weather the past several days is forecast to gradually weaken between tomorrow and the weekend, but initially, we may not notice much of a change.  Temps should stay where they are, through Friday, and might even climb another degree or two, with this mix of sunshine and clouds.  However, starting tomorrow, we'll have to be aware of at least a slight chance (20-30%) of some isolated thundershower development during the afternoon/evening hours, especially in the higher elevations to our north and northeast.  That shower risk could even climb up into the 50/50 category on Saturday.

Much cooler air in the upper atmosphere will settle gradually across Himalayan north India next week, with models now pinning Tuesday and Wednesday as particularly rainy and cool days for us.  Let's watch how this incoming system sets itself up -- and be prepared for a return to wet weather and cooler temps for a spell...

Monday, March 27, 2017

feels like late april... (pm.27.mar.17)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 59.5F (15.3C)
High temp: 77.1F (25.1C)
Rainfall: none

It's now ten days in a row without measurable rainfall, and the sixth day in a row of high temps exceeding 70ºF/21ºC.  In fact, today's high at my location in the upper part of town is the warmest of the season and the year, and more in line with a normal/average high temp for about the 22nd of April.  Again there was abundant sunshine today, though cumulus development over the mountains during the afternoon was a little more pronounced than it was yesterday.

This much warmer than normal weather is going to stick with us for a few more days, with temps possibly rising a bit further between tomorrow (Tues) and Thursday or Friday.  The first signs of instability will be returning though, as we head into the latter part of the week, and that means we could be dealing with at least a slight chance of some mainly PM shower/thunder development somewhere around the area -- starting on Wednesday, but then there's an even better chance over the weekend.  Temps will probably start to dip a few degrees by Saturday, just in time for the arrival of the new month.

I don't like what I am seeing on extended range computer models... with a very disturbed pattern evolving across the western Himalayas during the first week to ten days of April.  We could have a couple of periods of significant rain and thunderstorms during that period, along with temperatures falling back below normal for the season.  Even when the weather gets as nice as it's been recently, there are absolutely no guarantees in this part of the world...

Sunday, March 26, 2017

the finest so far... (pm.26.mar.17)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
High temp: 73.7F (23.2C)
Precipitation: none

It is not hard to officially declare TODAY the finest of 2017... with almost full sunshine, and temperatures which were about as comfortable as they get.  In fact, my high temp in the upper part of town was the warmest since the last couple of days of September, nearly six months ago.  The Dhauladhars stood in full glory as millions of cricket fans in India, Australia and other parts of the world watched the happenings down at the HPCA stadium in Dharamsala.

A building high pressure ridge will continue to dominate our weather scene during at least the first half of this week, causing our temps to climb even further above normal than they have already done.  For a few days we've been talking about 80ºF/27ºC as a distinct possibility around Tuesday and/or Wednesday, and that prognostication holds.  With major warming in the surface levels, and temps remaining steady or only warming slightly up higher in the atmosphere, we may see the risk of an isolated afternoon thundershower increasing through the week, but the mainly dry weather of the last nine days should not be seriously challenged until the weekend.

Then, a pattern change is in the cards as April arrives, and though the models are fluctuating and inconsistent as of now, it looks like temperatures will drop quite a bit, with shower and thunderstorm chances on the increase, at least off-and-on, during the first week to ten days of the new month.  Stay tuned for daily updates.