Thursday, March 24, 2011

sunshine dominates... (am.24.mar.11)>

it's a comfortable 59.5F (15.3C) before sunrise this morning, under clear skies.  once again, satellite pics show basically nothing going on from afghanistan across pakistan and northern india into western tibet.

the sunshine has certainly been abundant the last few days... and that has allowed our temperatures to moderate bit-by-bit, now slightly above normal for late march.  the upper air pattern is inactive... other than a random pool of colder air up around 15-20,000ft (4500-6000m), the flow is very gentle, and there are no significant disturbances expected for a few more days.  as we've seen recently, though... those pools of colder air aloft can create enough instability to generate clouds and even an isolated shower or two up on the mountains... but most likely, we'll remain immune down here in mcleod.

i've been mentioning a stronger upper-level disturbance coming this weekend... but this morning, the computer models are showing a much weaker system, so i am tempted to remove shower and thunder chances from the forecast.  just to be on the safe side, i'll leave it in for now, but keep in mind that rain chances from late saturday into monday should be generally less than about 40%.

THURSDAY: lots of morning sun, with skies becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon.  pleasantly warm.
high: 23C (74F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: becoming mostly clear.
low: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and warm.
high: 23C (74F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy skies, with an isolated late-day shower possible.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY: partly cloudy and warm, with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY: partly cloudy and unseasonably warm... chance of one or two PM thundershowers.
high: 24C (76F)