Thursday, May 26, 2011

temporarily calm... (pm.26.may.11)>

we have nearly 100% sunny skies early this evening, after only a brief build-up of big cumulus clouds and isolated thundershowers over the mountains during the afternoon.  i recorded a (slightly warmer than expected) high temp of 84.0F (28.9C).  i'm also pretty surprised that we haven't had any shower or thunderstorm action yet today.

it looks like our next upper-level disturbance is running several hours behind schedule... which allowed us the drier and warmer than expected weather today.  satellite and computer model data continue to indicate an increasingly unstable airmass developing during the next 12 to 24 hours, so thunderstorms could erupt rapidly overnight into friday, with little advance warning.  it would be wise to be prepared for rapidly changing weather if you plan to be out and about, away from shelter.

although we will likely get some good stretches of sunshine and smooth sailing from the weekend into early next week, our weather pattern will remain a bit on the unstable side... with warm temps at the surface, and little ripples of energy and colder air aloft drifting through.  that means we'll probably still get hit with random mainly afternoon and overnight thunderstorms right through the forecast period.  i think most of us would agree that each and every shower or storm is a welcome summertime relief, and a boon to our water supply.

THURSDAY NIGHT: clear early... but thunderstorms are a good possibility late.
low: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 28C (82F)

SATURDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies, with just a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 28C (82F)

SUNDAY: mostly sunny and warmer, with a random PM thundershower possible.
high: 29C (84F)

MONDAY: sunny to partly cloudy... slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.
high: 29C (84F)

TUESDAY: sunshine, a few clouds, chance of a PM thunderstorm.
high: 28C (83F)