Thursday, October 6, 2011

seasonal adjustments... (am.6.oct.11)>

skies are mostly clear this morning just before sunrise.  the overnight low has been a comfortably cool 61.0F (16.1C), with the humidity remaining rather high at 88%.  there has been just a trace of rainfall in the past 24 hours, and here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center, only 0.02" (0.5mm) of rain in the past five days.

showers have been extremely hit-and-miss since saturday.  there have been some pretty good dowpours during the afternoons/evenings at points mainly south and east of the immediate mcleod ganj area, but very little elsewhere.  the clouds and fog have been variable as well.  there have been periods of thick fog that rival anything we see even at the height of monsoon season, but nice periods of sunshine as well, which can temporarily lift our spirits.

there do appear to be some interesting changes just ahead, which offer hope for moving beyond this year's particularly gloomy post-monsoon period.  an upper-level disturbance is set to move in from the west during the first part of the weekend.  it will temporarily increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms, but will also likely usher in a batch of considerably drier air in its wake.  all the available computer model guidance is pointing at humidity dropping all the way down toward 50% by late saturday and sunday, which would be the driest of the season, if it pans out.

i know we are all kind of past the point of doubtful/cynical about any real, genuine, lasting turn to nicer weather this year... but we can at least be cautiously optimistic.

THURSDAY: sunshine early... then partly to mostly cloudy skies with some patchy fog possible.  a thundershower or two around the area during the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

THURSDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy with a risk of a thundershower overnight.
low: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: a mix of sun and clouds, with a good chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: scattered showers and/or thunderstorms likely.  otherwise partly cloudy.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: a good amount of sunshine... less humid.  slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: sunshine and a few clouds.  pleasant autumn weather.
high: 21C (69F)