Saturday, July 21, 2012

still lacking... (pm.21.jul.12)>

We have a mix of hazy sun and scattered clouds across the area on this Saturday evening.  Even though a bit more tropical moisture has been flowing in today, it hasn't translated into anything tangible as of yet.  We still had a mix of clouds, sun and a minor episode or two of fog today, but showers were very light, occurring off and on between about 1:30pm and 4:30pm.  I've only measured 0.03" (1mm) of rain in the upper part of town, along with another unseasonably warm high temp of 78.6F (25.9C).

During this monsoon season, we're having a really tough time seeing all of the necessary meteorological ingredients come together to produce classic/normal conditions.  Deeper moisture is definitely arriving, but the dynamics in the atmosphere have been pretty flat during the past 24 hours or so -- preventing this very humid air mass from being lifted and condensed into the form of thick clouds, dense fog and rain.  Are we destined this year for a lack of sustained monsoon conditions?  Or is there still time for things to change?

It seems the computer models are in a state of disarray as well... with several different solutions being offered for the next few days.  The bottom line is this:  We should still see increasing saturation of our air mass between now and at least late Tuesday of next week.  This should manifest itself in more hours of clouds and fog, and a better chance of more frequent, significant rainfall.  But having said that, this year has been so atypical and bizarre, I won't be shocked if we remain stuck in this state of limbo...

SATURDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at times.  good chance of some fog and rain/thunder developing overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of clouds, fog, and a few peeks of sunshine.  a round or two of rain and thunder likely.
high: 24C (75F)

SUNDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and thunder likely.
low: 19C (66F)

MONDAY:
mostly cloudy.  foggy at times, with periods of rain and thunder.
high: 22C (72F)

TUESDAY:
mostly cloudy with occasional fog, rain and thunder.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of clouds, fog and sun.  a period of rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

THURSDAY:
both clouds and some sun.  good chance of a round of showers/thundershowers.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)