Thursday, July 12, 2012

tracking the showers... (pm.12.jul.12)>

It is partly cloudy at the moment, but that may not be the case 15 minutes from now.  There have been a few dramatic swings today between sunshine, fog, clouds, showers, thunder, and back again.  So far, the most significant rainfall occurred in a quick burst just before 5:00pm -- I recorded 0.32" (8mm) in the upper part of town.  There were some extended periods of rather thick fog late this morning and during part of the afternoon, holding my high temp to just 73.2F (22.9C).

Scattered showers and thundershowers are lined up along the mountains from central Kashmir through Himachal and Uttarakhand into Nepal this evening, providing some moderate to heavy downpours of rain.  The lowest layers of the atmosphere are very close to saturation over a wide area, but an air mass that is considerably drier than normal for mid-July continues to hang on in the upper levels.  As I've mentioned numerous times during the last several days, this is what is keeping monsoon conditions rather sub-par.

There will continue to be surges of deeper moisture which, timed with cooling aloft, will increase instability and trigger some very healthy doses of rainfall from time to time between now and Sunday.  Computer models are drying things out from Sunday evening through Tuesday of next week, but I doubt whether any amount of drying this time of year will cut off our PM shower/thundershower potential here on the edge of the Dhauladars...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy.  chance of some fog and thundershowers developing again overnight.
low: 19C (67F)

FRIDAY:
clouds, periods of fog, and some peeks of sun.  a few showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 23C (73F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  some showers/thundershowers in the area.  heavy rain possible.
low: 19C (66F)

SATURDAY:
clouds and some fog, along with a period or two of sun.  a couple of showers and thundershowers likely.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY:
clouds, a glimpse or two of sun and some fog at times.  a period or two of rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY:
a mix of sun, clouds and some fog.  good chance of a thundershower or two.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 23C (74F)

TUESDAY:
a mix of clouds, fog and periods of sun.  good chance of a period or two of showers/thunder
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)