Saturday, July 27, 2013

awaiting the next surge... (am.27.jul.13)>

*Update @ 9:06am... The nice sunshine earlier this morning has yielded to rapidly developing fog during the past hour.  We'll see if the return to the saturation point is going to be just short-term, or for the long haul.

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There has been no new rainfall at my location in the upper part of town overnight, but I heard the thunder rumbling during the wee hours of the morning, so it's likely that someone, somewhere nearby was getting measurable rain.  At sunrise, it is partly cloudy, with a humidity reading of 87%.  We're starting off the day with a temperature near 68F (20C).

Although there have been some showers and healthy downpours scattered across the area during the past few days, we've been in a generally weak phase of the monsoon.  Since Wednesday, the average humidity has been way below normal for the end of July -- often dipping below 80% for a few hours every day.  That has left us well below the saturation point, with only a few short periods of fog, mainly during the evening hours.  Of course it is really nice to get a stretch of pretty decent weather this time of year, so I haven't heard many complaints.  But as I mentioned last night, the July rainfall tally is running way behind, and we need more than 14" (35cm) if we're going to catch up during these last five days of the month.

A fresh array of computer model data this morning continues to point toward a return to genuine monsoon conditions, in the form of a new surge of deep, rich and juicy tropical moisture.  It will most likely arrive gradually, between late today (Sat) and tomorrow (Sun) evening, in the form of humidity climbing back toward the 95-100% range.  The risk of heavier showers will increase as well, leading to perhaps a period of more extended heavy rain -- especially as we move toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Check the tabs at the top of the page for your CURRENT FORECAST, along with other information.