Thursday, September 19, 2013

mixed signals... (am.19.sep.13)>

We'll be getting bright sunshine in just a few minutes, as skies are totally clear again early this morning.  The temperature is a mild 66F (19C), and humidity is low -- at 43%.  There has been no rainfall since last report, which means we are now going into our fourth dry day in a row.

There are some conflicting signals to examine this morning.  On one hand, a sprawling post-monsoon air mass has pretty much taken over the western Himalayan region, with low moisture content in all but the very lowest layers of the atmosphere.  On the other hand, computer models are showing the deep tropical/monsoon moisture which is now in central and northeastern India being drawn BACK northwestward as the weekend approaches.  On top of those two factors, the India Met Department has announced that there will be a monsoon withdrawal declaration by Friday evening, which could include us here in western Himachal Pradesh.

What this all boils down to is that we could find ourselves right on the line between air masses again, especially on Saturday and Sunday, which means things could go either way.  We could remain in the dry air and sunshine, or we could see a resurgence of tropical moisture which causes our humidity to sky-rocket and increases our potential for some showers and thundershowers.  Stay tuned as we carefully watch what this crazy atmosphere decides to do.

Other monsoon info, along with CURRENT FORECAST details are available on tabs above.