Saturday, December 21, 2013

officially winter... (pm.21.dec.13)>

*Update @ 3:33am... Snowing here on Tushita Road below mountaineering center.  Still no power... laptop battery nearly dead.  over and out..

*Update @ 8:52pm... Steady light rain continues to fall, and I have about a half inch (1.2cm) in my rain gauge.  That's a lot more than I was expecting by this point, and more than any of the computer model projections as well.  My temp has stabilized, and even risen slightly during the last hour or so... to around 37.8F (3.2C).  Still, anything could happen overnight, so it will be interesting to see where the snow line ends up tomorrow morning.  Still no light... battery power dwindling.

*Update @ 7:48pm... It's raining lightly here in the upper part of town, with some rumbles of thunder as well.  My temp is 37.0F (2.8C), which is the coldest of the season, while humidity is at 81% and slowly rising.  With sub-freezing air above 8000ft (2400m) or so, there is likely to be snow falling up toward Galu Temple already.  NO POWER in many areas of town right now, which is no surprise.  Never available when we need it.  :-(

*Update @ 6:49pm... Rain has picked up in earnest during the past 10 minutes.  Will be watching the temperature and humidity levels carefully during the next hour or so to get an idea of how low the snow line may go... 

--------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 37.0F (2.8C) -- *updated
High temp: 49.1F (9.5C)
Rainfall: trace

The winter solstice is arriving this evening, and so is the first spell of wet weather we've experienced here in McLeod in about six weeks.  Glimpses of sun had to struggle against thickening cloud cover today -- and the first light rain showers materialized after 5pm, just before dark.  On top of that, it's turned out to be one of the coldest days of the season, with temperatures remaining in the 40s (F) from start to finish.  Humidity is just now climbing above 50%.

An upper-level disturbance moving toward northern India isn't particularly strong, but very cold air aloft, combined with some moisture-laden air being pulled in from the south and southeast looks like it will be enough to lead to the development of some light to moderate rain and snow showers across much of Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours or so.  The latest run of the computer model data remains consistent in painting out an area of 1-2cm (0.4-0.8") of precipitation across mainly the higher elevations -- which translates into at least a half-foot of snow above roughly 8000ft (2400m).  It could turn out that the rain/snow line sets up below that level... it's pretty much impossible to nail it down until it starts happening.  If you live in Dharamkot and Naddi especially, just be aware that you could end up very close to that line!

The moisture supply for this system should get cut off tomorrow night, and that will cause rain/snow chances to diminish rapidly by Monday.  Dry conditions are in the forecast from that point through Christmas Day, but another chance of some rain/snow showers in our area enters the picture by Thursday.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST specs on the tab at the top of the page.