Friday, January 31, 2014

another nice one... (am.31.jan.14)>

It is totally clear again early on this Friday morning.  Temperatures remain quite mild for the season -- I'm recording a predawn low of 47.8F (8.8C), and there has been no precipitation since last report.  Humidity at sunrise is 35%.

It looks like the month of January is going to bow out quietly and without a fight.  A ridge of high pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across northern India, keeping a good amount of sunshine in the forecast, along with temperatures that are well above normal.  But that has been the case the last few days, so we're used to it -- and getting spoiled as well.  We'll have to watch for some potential cloud development later in the day, and then a better chance of some clouds spreading in from the west and southwest on Saturday, otherwise there's not much to worry about as we cross over into February.

Thereafter, there are some things to be concerned about.  We've got a complicated weather system which will be developing way off to our west in the vicinity of the southern Caspian Sea and northern Iran by tomorrow, which will rapidly push eastward into the western Himalayan region by late Sunday.  There will be some moisture pulled northward from the Arabian Sea into northern India by late Sunday night, and with the arrival of a strong pulse of upper-level energy and accompanying colder air aloft, widespread precipitation is expected to explode across Punjab, Himachal and Jammu & Kashmir.  The latest data shows our best chance of significant rainfall (with snow in the higher elevations) between very late Sunday night and early Tuesday morning -- that means Monday will probably bear the brunt of the effects.  We are running behind in terms of our winter precipitation and mountain snow pack, so if this storm performs, it will help the situation.

Check CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.