Wednesday, February 26, 2014

another realignment... (am.26.feb.14)>

At sunrise this morning we have partly cloudy and hazy skies, with a humidity reading of 70%.  The overnight low temp at my location on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center has been 44.4F (6.9C) -- and that occurred just a few minutes ago.  There has been no precipitation since last report.

Our atmosphere is in the midst of another major realignment phase, as the weak high pressure ridge which was in control during the first part of the week yields to a broad trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere now easing in from the west.  There are several embedded areas of upper-level circulation in that trough which are going to bring us an extended period of unsettled/unstable weather conditions.  We're also seeing a gradual increase in the overall moisture content of our air mass, while colder air filters in from the north and northwest during the coming few days.  All of this spells out a rather long period of unseasonably cold and potentially wet weather as we cross from February into March, and approach Tibetan Losar.

The computer models are really kind of all over the place with how precipitation patterns are going to develop over northern India.  The general idea is that we'll see an increasing chance of a few rain showers by tonight, with the best chance of significant rain still pegged for perhaps Thursday night through Friday night.  But rain chances will linger through the weekend as well.  Temperatures will drop back into a range that is way below normal for this time of year, and that's going to cause us to be concerned about accumulating snow potential in the higher elevations as this precipitation develops.  Stay tuned for updates...

The CURRENT FORECAST is on the tab above.