Monday, February 3, 2014

just the beginning... (am.03.feb.14)>

*Update @ 2:45pm... We've had fairly consistent light rain falling since around noon, but my rain gauge only shows 0.20" (5mm) up to this point.  It's turned much colder -- current temp is 42.7 (5.9C).

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It's cloudy and 47F (8.3C) just before sunrise, with a humidity reading of 55%.  The first gusty winds and light showers developed across our area just after 1:00am, and my rain gauge is showing 0.07" (2mm) which occurred mainly between 3:00 and 4:30am.  The temperature has been fluctuating between a high near 51F (10.6C) around midnight, to a low of 43.2F (6.2C) during a rain shower at around 4:00am.

The initial wave of upper-level energy associated with our major weather pattern change is just now plowing into northern Pakistan early this morning.  Rain and snow showers which developed out ahead of it overnight have remained mainly in the higher mountains to our north, so thus far, we've been on the southern edge of the precipitation.  Computer model data remains consistent across the board, putting us in a favorable area to receive just over 2cm (0.8 - 1.0") of rain by late tomorrow morning -- but I am still thinking that we could find ourselves on the very south-southwest edge of the main precipitation band over the course of the next 24 hours.

However, this is only the beginning.  It is looking like we're in for a long stretch of unstable and off-and-on wet weather which will last all the way into this coming weekend.  There are several disturbances expected to move along a very fast-moving west-to-east upper-level flow, with very cold air lurking to the north and moisture from the Arabian Sea getting pulled in from the south.  Temperatures will average out well below normal for early February during this week, with a better possibility of some significant snowfall not far from McLeod as well.  It will be a busy weather week, so stay tuned.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.