Wednesday, February 5, 2014

our active pattern... (pm.05.feb.14)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 43.0F (6.1C)
High temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
Precipitation: 0.02" (less than 1mm)

We have partly cloudy skies across the area just after sunset this evening.  The clouds and numerous brief, light rain showers dominated during the first two-thirds of the day, but by 2pm, the sun broke out and graced us with its presence until the clouds tried to thicken up again towards early evening.  There were a few notable moments during mid-day when we had clouds, sun and very light rain occurring simultaneously.  The direct sunshine this afternoon felt great, but this air mass is quite cold, so the actual air temp failed to rise very much -- as you may have noticed if you stepped from sun into the shade.

Well the couple of hours of sun were certainly welcome this afternoon, after having seen more than enough clouds since late Sunday.   We're enjoying  a brief period of brighter weather in between disturbances in the upper-level flow, which should last until about mid-day tomorrow (Thu) when rain chances will start to increase yet again.  This next disturbance is showing signs of packing more of a punch than the previous two or three which have moved through here in the past few days.  It is currently moving into central Iran, and should be just pushing into northern Pakistan by late tomorrow night.  Although the computer models continue to have a lot of trouble projecting precipitation totals for our area (not unusual at all), the three main models providing data for us are all showing 3-4cm (1.2-1.6") of rain and/or melted snow here -- between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning.  We can at least use that as a guide, and be prepared for a significant round of wet weather.

This has been a strange winter in terms of getting the right combination of variables to line up to produce snow in McLeod.  Once again, temperatures are looking slightly too warm for snow -- at least at this point.  It is often a moment-by-moment situation as precipitation develops and we watch how temperature/humidity profiles evolve.  So the bottom line: We shall try for another chance to get some much needed rain and/or snowfall as we head into the weekend...

The CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.