Friday, February 14, 2014

the wet/white dilemma... (pm.14.feb.14)>

*Update @ 10:21pm...  The temperature has dipped to 34.7F (1.5C) during the last half hour, and I still have moderate snow falling.  There is nearly 2 inches of accumulation on my terrace.  That's the most of this winter season so far.

*Update @ 9:56pm... The transition from rain to snow seems to be complete here at my location.  There is moderate snow in progress, low visibility, and rapid accumulation occurring on the trees, railings, terrace, etc... despite the fact that the temp is still a bit above freezing at 35.2F (1.8C).  It still looks from satellite pics as if precipitation is going to continue on for another couple of hours... or more.  Are we finally getting a snow storm??

*Update @ 9:09pm... There's still a little bit of rain mixed in, but mostly I have snow here at my location just below the mountaineering center on Tushita Road.  Minor accumulations are just beginning on trees, and on my balcony railings and open terrace.  Temp holding at 35.4F (1.9C).  From what I can surmise from satellite pics, precipitation is not going to end soon.

*Update @ 8:37pm... Roughly half rain and half snow here now... some large flakes.  Temp has dropped to 35.4F (1.9C).

*Update @ 7:47pm...  As I was making my trek from the main market back uphill toward home during the past half hour, I saw quite a lot of wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain.  We'll see if this is the beginning of a transition to snow, or just a temporary event.  It is 36.5F (2.5C) at my house in the upper part of town, and there has been an additional 0.49" (1.2cm) of rain/melted snowflakes since 4:30pm.  Check below for the updated storm total.

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Friday's stats:

Low temp: 34.7F (1.5C)
High temp: 41.5F (5.3C) -- at midnight
Total 24 hour precipitation: 2.24" (5.7cm) -- as of 7:40pm
Snowfall: trace

Not much has changed all day long -- with thick clouds, nearly continuous light to moderate rain, and temperatures holding steady around 38-40F (3-4C).  There is still steady light rain falling at sunset, with the snow line remaining a few hundred meters above McLeod proper.  I heard several reports today of snowfall amounts ranging from about 3 inches to more than 10 inches -- between Naddi, Dharamkot, Upper Bhagsu, and then on up to near Galu Temple.  And on another note, my high temperature on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center occurred at midnight, and was the coldest high temp of this entire winter season.

A broad and very slow moving trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is centered over central Pakistan this evening, and is expected to shift into northern India tonight into early Saturday, and be centered right over Himachal Pradesh by late tomorrow afternoon.  There is quite clearly an amazing amount of moisture that has been drawn northward in the counter-clockwise circulation ahead of this system, and with gradually colder air aloft seeping southward into our area, there have been moderate to heavy rain and snow amounts over a very wide area.

It seems like there has been an invisible barrier somewhere between Dharamkot and the upper part of McLeod Ganj that has prevented accumulating snowfall from occurring this season here in town -- but as long as the precipitation doesn't diminish completely later tonight into Saturday, there is still a very good chance that we could get a layer of white.  It looks like we will indeed see the deeper moisture begin to depart by tomorrow morning, but with colder and colder air arriving at the same time, there could be enough overlap between available moisture and near-freezing temperatures to see that snow line drop further down the mountain.  Why does it always have to be a 'pins and needles' situation for us??

We should get a few hours of dry weather in between periods of rain and/or snow on Saturday into Saturday evening, but then precipitation chances will go way down on Sunday -- apart from the risk of an isolated (mainly PM snow shower).  Temperatures are going to remain at the very coldest of this winter season all the way through the weekend, but then we can look forward to some rapid warming on Monday and Tuesday. 

Stay tuned for updates on the rain/snow situation tonight and tomorrow, and check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab above.