Sunday, March 9, 2014

an inclement period... (pm.09.14)>

*Update @ 9:02pm... There is nothing threatening us right now.  In fact, we have mostly clear skies.  But -- there are a few large areas of rain and thunderstorms to our west and northwest over northern Pakistan and most of Kashmir which could approach us after midnight.  It is currently 48.7F (9.3C), and humidity is 43%.

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Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)
High temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
Precipitation: trace

It's partly cloudy after sunset this evening, with the temperature hovering just below 50F (10C).  You can see from the stats above that temps didn't vary too widely today.  The high actually occurred during the mid-morning, with the low occurring in the early afternoon -- a switch from the normal routine.  This was due to some scattered light shower development during the mid-day hours and again during the late afternoon, along with thick cloudiness and a period or two of gusty winds.  It was nice to see a bit of sun off and on today, but clouds made up the majority of the daylight hours.

Well, we're just barely getting started with our next round of inclement weather which looks like it will continue until early Wednesday.  Today's rainfall was light across most of our area, but that should change as we move forward.  That wave of upper-level dynamic energy we've been talking about is now pushing into northern Afghanistan, and will deepen into a rather strong low pressure circulation during the coming 24 hours.  As it does, it will slow down -- creeping very slowly eastward toward northern India during the first half of this new week.  The counter-clockwise circulation around this system is just now starting to tap into the deeper moisture to our south, which will be fuel for widespread precipitation development during the next 24-36 hours.

It's going to be a 'watch and wait' scenario to see when things really get rolling, but it looks like the best potential for some heavy rainfall will be between perhaps very late tonight and very early Wednesday morning.  I know that's a very large window of opportunity, but that's how it is right now.  Some computer models are still showing more than 5cm (2") of rain in our area by the time this is all over.  And -- as I mentioned this morning, be aware of the potential for heavy snow up toward Triund.  This late-season period is often dangerous for trekkers and campers who are not paying attention to what the weather is doing.

The end of this week holds promise for at least a temporary turn to much nicer and milder conditions.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.