Thursday, March 27, 2014

clouds trump sun... (am.27.mar.14)>

We are 100% socked in with clouds at sunrise this morning -- it looks pretty threatening, but there are actually no showers in the area right now, nor has there been any rainfall overnight here at my location in the upper part of town.  I'm recording a low temp of 53.2F (11.8C), and humidity is hovering around 40%.

There is an extensive area of mid- and high cloudiness extending from the northern Arabian Sea into northern India this morning, in association with a couple of disturbances riding northeastward in the upper-level flow.  There is no real strong circulation center associated with this whole system, but it has gathered a large batch of tropical moisture which has led to all of this cloudiness -- and may fuel some significant shower and thundershower development during the coming 36-48 hours.  We may see some peeks of sun today, but I think the clouds are definitely going to win the day.

The best chance of rain still appears to be between late tonight and late Friday night, with a couple of random showers possibly lingering into Saturday.  I don't think we'll have rainfall amounts anywhere near that of our most recent storm system (1.87"/4.7cm), but it's possible there could be some one inch (2.5cm) totals somewhere around the area.

A more stable pattern is expected to develop over northern India by late Saturday and Sunday, which looks now like it could keep things relatively calm and dry, and a bit warmer, through Tuesday of next week (the 1st of April).  But we're still not talking about a pattern shift that would totally put an end to occasional bouts of rainfall as we head through the first week of the new month...

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.