Thursday, March 6, 2014

mixed messages... (pm.06.mar.14)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 41.0F (5.0C)
High temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
Precipitation: 0.03" (1mm)* -- rain, melted hail and snow pellets
*updated @ 8:20pm

There are only a few lingering clouds at sunset this evening in the wake of our late afternoon shower of rain, snow pellets and hail which occurred between about 4:30 and 5:00pm.  Thunder started rumbling as early as 3:30pm, after morning and early afternoon sunshine yielded to building clouds over the Dhauladhars.  Temperatures today were a few degrees milder than the last few days, but still way below early March averages.

Well... that afternoon instability that I was worried about did indeed manifest.  It is still very cold in the higher levels of the atmosphere, though we are getting some milder air showing up in the mid- and lower levels.  With some lingering latent moisture in the air, the stage is set for condensation/convection over the mountains after several hours of strong sunshine.  This scenario could repeat itself tomorrow (Fri) and Saturday, unless the upper levels happen to warm up enough to squash that afternoon instability factor.  The good news is that our temperatures will continue to moderate, and sunshine should still be more plentiful than it has been during much of the past week or so.

But here we go again.  It looks like a very complex weather pattern is going to develop across the western Himalayas starting on Sunday, bringing us yet another extended period of potentially wet and stormy weather during the first half of next week.  As is somewhat normal three or four days in advance of a developing system, computer models are full of all kinds of inconsistencies -- but there is definitely going to be a lot to watch, especially from late Sunday through Tuesday.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.