Wednesday, April 2, 2014

short-term threats... (am.02.apr.14)>

Apart from a couple of patches of blue, we have mostly cloudy skies at sunrise this morning.  My overnight low temp has been 54.9F (12.7C), and there has been no rainfall since last report.  The humidity reading this morning is 42%.

Our next weather disturbance began pushing into northern India overnight, bringing us an increase in mainly mid- and high clouds, along with some gusty winds at times.  The center of the upper-level circulation is just now moving into northern Pakistan, and will make its way toward Kashmir by this evening, then lift northeast and weaken by early tomorrow morning.  This is still not looking like a very robust system, but as a bit of dynamic energy and slightly colder air aloft interacts with a batch of moisture nudging our way in the lower levels, there will likely be some scattered shower and thundershower development occurring.  The best chance of a period or two of measurable rainfall seems to be between this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning -- though anything more than about 0.50" (1cm) doesn't look very likely.

A high pressure ridge accompanied by significantly warmer air in the mid- and upper-atmosphere will start to build in by tomorrow afternoon, probably hanging around until late Sunday.  I'm concerned that we may have to contend with quite a lot of high cloudiness off-and-on over the weekend, but if we can get much sunshine at all, temperatures will push toward the warmest of the season.  The next good chance of rain will appear again by Sunday evening, continuing at least through Monday.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.