Wednesday, April 1, 2015

not pleasant at all... (pm.01.apr.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 49.1F (9.5C)
High temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
Rainfall: 0.47" (1.2cm) -- updated @ 8:30pm

Just as I've opened up a new page to start typing, the setting sun has broken through in the western sky.  It was a much different story just 15 minutes ago, as we've had an impressive period of moderate to heavy rain showers this evening.  The first rain drops appeared just before noon today, with frequent mainly light showers throughout the afternoon which were accompanied by thunder at times.  It was nice to get a bit of sunshine this morning, but as has been the case this whole week, we've only been teased and then betrayed by those short sunny breaks.

The latest in this extended series of upper-level disturbances is rolling into southwestern Jammu & Kashmir right now, and has behaved exactly according to expectations.  There's still a chance of more shower or thundershower development overnight, but I think the general trend is going to be toward some stabilization of our air mass, especially after midnight.  That's going to set us up for a fairly decent Thursday -- we'll again find ourselves in between disturbances, and should see a mix of clouds and occasional sunshine, along with a bit of a bump in temperatures.

Another wave of rain and thunderstorms will be on the way by Thursday night, continuing through Good Friday and maybe into the wee hours of Saturday morning.  It still looks like this disturbance could be the most powerful of the entire week, so keep that in mind.  THEN -- there are some hopeful signs showing up thereafter, as a very slow and incremental turn to more stable conditions sets over the weekend into early next week.  At this point, I can't say that we won't see any rain at all, but there should be much more sunshine, with most of the shower/thundershower activity confined to afternoon development in the vicinity of the mountains.  We should find ourselves considerably warmer by the middle of next week, though still below normal for early April.

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