Thursday, June 25, 2015

a monsoon declaration... (am.25.jun.15)>

It's officially MONSOON 2015 -- last night the India Met Department declared the onset of the monsoon all up and down the Himalayas of north India, which of course includes Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand.  All of Nepal is also included.  Normally the IMD runs a few days behind what is actually going on, waiting until monsoon conditions are firmly set, but this year they seem to be running ahead of the game.

Here's the link to the IMD summary/bulletin  As of early this morning, they hadn't updated the main map, but you'll see Chief Features and Forecast at the top of the right-hand column.  Click on that for the bulletin itself, then scroll down and you'll eventually find the updated map.


This morning at sunrise we have cloudy skies with some light rain, and the temperature is very close to the overnight low of 57.6F (14.2C).  The humidity reading here at my location in the upper part of town is 73%.  We had a good round of thunderstorms with moderate to occasionally heavy rain which started up sometime after 1:00am, with light to occasionally moderate rain continuing after 4:00am or so.  I've measured 0.90" (2.3cm) as of 6:30am.

We're still in the midst of a complex weather system which is affecting virtually all of the northwest one-third of India.  An upper-level dynamic circulation center from central Asia continues to spin to our northwest, as a tropical low pressure circulation slowly pushes from Gujarat into extreme southern Rajasthan.  These two features are funneling an impressive amount of tropical moisture northward into Himachal and Uttarakhand this morning.  However, as we've been discussing, we find ourselves on the western edge of the main precipitation area... with the heaviest rainfall expected to end up being to our east, with a bull's eye of heavy rainfall over eastern Uttarakhand between now and early tomorrow (Fri) morning.  Today will be a bit precarious for us, as clearing tries to push its way in from the west while juicy tropical air continues to attempt a northward push.  That means we'll continue to deal with the potential for more shower/thunder development, while also perhaps flirting with some periods of sun.

A warmer and more stable air mass will ease in from the west starting tomorrow, and especially on Saturday and Sunday.  However, there is now enough moisture present that we could still see a lot of cloudiness build up during the mid-day and afternoon hours, along with some isolated thundershower development.  Yes, there are bright spots at times during the monsoon season, but they don't normally hang around for very long.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.