Clouds have been thickening up during the past hour, and we have mostly cloudy skies at the moment. I'm recording a current temp of 66.8F (19.3C), which is close to the overnight low of 66.0F (18.9C). The humidity reading stands at 50%, and there has been no precipitation since last report.
Last evening's data was showing a different trend in the evolution/development of our weather scenario, and this morning, all of the computer models have come into agreement. The trend is for the heaviest rain development to occur further to the east-southeast of us -- more toward Shimla and Dehra Dun -- and for the vast majority of the moisture to be swept out of here by mid-day Thursday. This is in stark contrast to projections just 18 to 24 hours ago, so we'll have to continue to watch the data to see if there's a reversal.
Anyway, we're still talking about a rather strong upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest, a low pressure circulation now arriving on the Gujarat coast moving northeastward, and deep tropical moisture creeping northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains. There will be scattered showers and thundershowers all across northwest India in association with these converging features... with some localized pockets of very heavy rainfall between later today and Thursday afternoon/evening. Again, the data is now basically leaving us out of the heaviest rain potential, but let's keep a close eye on things during the next 24-36 hours or so.
The Friday through Sunday period is looking remarkably good... as this system pushes well off to the east, allowing a return to sunshine and warmer temperatures. There could still be some isolated mainly PM thunder development, however.
Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details, and follow AWAITING MONSOON 2015 for the latest statements from the IMD.
Last evening's data was showing a different trend in the evolution/development of our weather scenario, and this morning, all of the computer models have come into agreement. The trend is for the heaviest rain development to occur further to the east-southeast of us -- more toward Shimla and Dehra Dun -- and for the vast majority of the moisture to be swept out of here by mid-day Thursday. This is in stark contrast to projections just 18 to 24 hours ago, so we'll have to continue to watch the data to see if there's a reversal.
Anyway, we're still talking about a rather strong upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest, a low pressure circulation now arriving on the Gujarat coast moving northeastward, and deep tropical moisture creeping northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains. There will be scattered showers and thundershowers all across northwest India in association with these converging features... with some localized pockets of very heavy rainfall between later today and Thursday afternoon/evening. Again, the data is now basically leaving us out of the heaviest rain potential, but let's keep a close eye on things during the next 24-36 hours or so.
The Friday through Sunday period is looking remarkably good... as this system pushes well off to the east, allowing a return to sunshine and warmer temperatures. There could still be some isolated mainly PM thunder development, however.
Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK for forecast details, and follow AWAITING MONSOON 2015 for the latest statements from the IMD.
