Wednesday, June 24, 2015

juicing up... (pm.24.jun.15)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 63.9F (17.7C) -- @ 6:30pm during shwrs
High temp: 76.6F (24.8C)
Rainfall: 0.02" (less than 1mm) -- updated @ 8:10pm

We're finally getting some light rain showers this evening -- which began around 6:15pm.  The day has alternated between periods of thick cloudiness and some decent periods of sunshine during the mid-day hours, and there have been some traces of fog trying hard to develop around the area since late this afternoon.  Our average humidity since around noon has been very close to 70%, indicating that the moisture content of our air mass continues to rise.

An upper-level disturbance is centered over northern Afghanistan this evening, with a low pressure circulation over central Gujarat.  The air mass across northwest India continues to 'juice up', as tropical moisture invades from the south and southeast.  These are all the same ingredients we've been tracking for the last few days, as we were anticipating this spell of rainy weather.  The overall scenario has changed quite a bit during the past 24 hours though, as the computer models continue the trend of showing the heaviest rainfall potential just to our east.  It now looks like extreme eastern Himachal into Uttarakhand will bear the brunt of this weather system between now and late Thursday night -- but that doesn't mean we get off with nothing.  There are still going to be waves of rain and possible thunderstorms through tomorrow evening, which could bring us some locally moderate to heavy rainfall totals in our general area.  The risk of some isolated to scattered thundershower development exists on Friday as well, though there should be some short-lived evidence of stabilization that will carry us through most of the weekend.

But we've now reached the point when tropical moisture associated with the advancing monsoon will remain precariously close... even if we do get a couple of days of more stable conditions with temporarily lower humidity.  That means a more moisture-laden air mass and better rain chances re-enter the picture by Monday into Tuesday.

Check out tabs at the top of the page for forecast details and monsoon status/info.