Sunday, October 25, 2015

a turbulent period... (pm.25.oct.15)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 55.9F (13.3C)
High temp: 63.1F (17.3C)
Rainfall: trace

It's breezy this evening, with cloudy skies and a few very light sprinkles of rain in the air during the last hour or so.  Today has definitely been one of the gloomier days of our month-long post-monsoon period -- as clouds have dominated the skies persistently.  We had some very gusty winds as some rain/snow showers moved along the Dhauladhars during the pre-dawn, but the rest of the day has been quiet and dry, in spite of the cloudiness and recent sprinkles.  We have to go all the way back to the 16th of April to find a day with a cooler high temp than we had today.

The alpha weather feature right now is a strengthening upper-level low pressure circulation over northwestern Afghanistan, which is going to shift east-southeastward only slowly during the next 72 hours or so.  By Wednesday morning it should be centered over eastern Punjab, but by that time the rain risk should have diminished.  In the meantime, there is still a good chance of the development of scattered showers and maybe even a couple of thunderstorms from northern Pakistan into Himalayan north India -- and we're entering the best window of opportunity for that to occur right now.  If we do end up with significant rainfall (maybe around an inch/2.5cm??), it should happen between later tonight and Tuesday afternoon.  BUT -- there are still a couple of computer models which are showing much lighter amounts of precipitation.  With a turbulent atmosphere in general, expect some strong and gusty winds at times.

The coolest temperatures of this autumn season should be occurring during the coming three days or so, before a significant warming trend kicks in for the latter part of the week.  A building ridge of high pressure aloft by Thursday should usher in a rather lengthy period of stable weather.

There's lots more info on tabs at the top of the page, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.