the latest...

TOTAL PRECIPITATION for the month of JANUARY 2018 so far -- ZERO.

Friday, January 12, 2018

uneventful... (pm.12.jan.18)>

The weak upper-level disturbance swinging across Himalayan north India the last 36 hours has now scooted east-southeast of us, and has taken an extensive area of high cloudiness with it.  It was nice to see the return of the sunshine this afternoon... although a cooler air mass has been filtering in since around 3-4pm.  There was no rain/snow anywhere close to us... and it has now been exactly one month since we've had measurable precipitation in McLeod Ganj.

All model data is showing a totally flat and uneventful weather pattern all across the Indian subcontinent during the coming week to ten days or so... which should significantly prolong our already month-long dry streak.  I have watched each run of the various computer models a couple of times a day, as the dangling carrot of some kind of mid-winter storm system keeps moving further into the future.  Now, there are some indications of a developing system towards the latter five or six days of the month, but I'm not in a mood to place great faith in that projection.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

dry and pleasant... (pm.09.jan.18)>

Temperatures today have been the mildest since the 29th of December, and thus obviously, the warmest of 2018.  A long-wave ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching across the western Himalayas is responsible for this unseasonably mild weather -- though it is also responsible for an inversion which is trapping a shallow layer of colder air, fog and smog, in the lower elevations to our south.

This recent warming trend will continue tomorrow (Wed), but we could see some high cloudiness streaming in from the west which would dim our sunshine potential on Thursday.  That high cloudiness will be in association with a weak upper-level disturbance scheduled for late Thursday into Friday... though precipitation is not expected in our area.

According to the latest extended range computer model data, there are still hints of some kind of moderate storm system by the middle of next week, and we will eagerly and enthusiastically keep an eye on that...

Sunday, January 7, 2018

milder temps ahead... (pm.07.jan.18)>

It's now been more than three and half weeks -- the morning of the 13th of December -- since we've had any precipitation here in McLeod.  The weather pattern remains extremely docile and calm and quiet, and should remain that way for at least the next week.  In fact, we should experience a noticeable warming trend effective immediately, which will last into Thursday, as a moderate ridge of high pressure aloft builds across northern India.

As I've mentioned several times, the models have been really fickle about potential pattern shifts/changes during the middle of the month -- but at least as of this evening, there is only a fast-moving and middling type of weather system forecast to tempt us with some precipitation around the 18th-19th.  I am very disappointed in our rain/snow chances -- to say the least.  Still waiting and watching.

Thursday, January 4, 2018

only minor issues... (pm.04.jan.18)>

An upper-level disturbance is swinging in from the northwest tonight, and with its accompanying moisture and colder air aloft, it has produced a significant amount of cloudiness across Himalayan north India since late this afternoon.  There will likely be some snow squalls/showers in the higher elevations north-northeast of us overnight into mid-day Friday... but the risk of measurable precipitation here in McLeod is very slight.

After this disturbance scoots east of us by late Friday, there should be very little happening all the way into the latter part of next week.  Temperatures, which are on the cool side right now, might cool off even more during the first part of the weekend, but a gradual warming trend is expected by Monday.

Models have been incredibly inconsistent after about the 12th-13th of the month, but the latest solutions show something of interest -- in terms of a shot at some significant precipitation -- during the mid-month period.  Check back here for updates on that.

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

mid-winter calm... (pm.02.jan.18)>

I am dying to bring news of something different... as we are getting into the middle of the winter season, and another healthy round of rain and mountain snowfall is already overdue.  However, there is nothing of the sort in our immediate future, even though we do have a minor disturbance on the way late Thursday and Friday, which could bring some light snow showers to the higher elevations north and northeast of us.

Prospects of some kind of more significant winter storm system after the 11th-12th of the month have evaporated -- according to the latest computer model runs -- but we shall keep watch as January continues to unfold.

There are tabs above where you can find more specific local data/forecast info...