Thursday, February 1, 2018

new month, same story... (pm.01.feb.18)>

It has been disheartening to see the risk of some light to moderate precipitation on Saturday fade into oblivion... and also to continue to monitor a mid-winter weather pattern that refuses to deliver any kind of significant storm system to Himalayan north India.

Of course there is still time to see some kind of change in this very benign and dull and uneventful weather pattern, but current models are not showing a whole lot of action... all the way through the middle of this new month.

I have to make my exit from India very soon, so if things change and we finally get some much needed winter rain and snowfall, I won't be around to see it.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

watching and waiting... (pm.30.jan.18)>

The last couple of data runs have been looking a bit more interesting, in terms of the prospects for some measurable precipitation in our area sometime between late Friday evening and late Saturday night.  Right now, we're not talking about a major winter storm system... but the chance of something on the order of a half-inch (1.2cm) of rain looks reasonable.  Of course that would translate into around 5-6" (13-15cm) of snow up towards Triund.

In the meantime, we'll continue to see a mix of clouds and sunshine, along with rather mild temperatures for the January-to-February transition period.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

very little action... (pm.27.jan.18)>

With just over four days left of January 2018, we've had only about five hours of accumulating precipitation to log into the weather stats -- occurring back on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  That's pretty pathetic.  Yes, as far as comfort and convenience is concerned, it has been a very pleasant month -- but considering the fact that mid-winter rain and snowfall is vitally important around here, it has not been good news.

Afternoon cloud/fog development has eased off the last day or two, as a brisk west-northwesterly flow aloft gradually erodes the latent moisture which had been lingering in the wake of Tuesday's precipitation event.  But a fresh upper-level disturbance organizing  over central Asia will bring us some waves of high cloudiness during the coming several days... though rain/snow chances look like they will be best in the higher elevations to our north between late Monday and early Wednesday.  Meanwhile, our general temperature trend will be upward...

Thursday, January 25, 2018

sun/cloud/fog struggles... (pm.25.jan.18)>

Well...  Our overall weather scenario definitely has changed these last several days, as we were expecting.  It's been a surprise to see all of this cloud/fog development here along the mountains in the wake of the fast-moving storm system that brought us some light precipitation back on Tuesday afternoon/evening -- but the drop in temps has been pretty much in line with expectations.

There are no incoming storm system to deal with, at least in the near term, but a west-northwesterly upper-level flow is going to keep us under the influence of a fairly typical mid-winter continental Asian air mass for the next two or three days.  Mainly PM cloud/fog development will still be an issue to watch, but rain/snow is very unlikely through Monday.

A new system pushing into the western Himalayas during the first part of next week looks like it will stay to our north, though there is at least a mentionable risk of some shower activity on Tuesday.

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

winter drought breaks... (pm.23.jan.18)>

After 41 days without even one drop of precipitation, the last few hours have been a slap in the face -- and also a very welcome relief.  A deep upper-level low pressure circulation moved into northwestern Rajasthan early this morning, and will cross into western Nepal by tomorrow (Wed) morning. There were a few very light sprinkles of rain in McLeod which started shortly after 2:00pm, but then around 3:45pm, we started to get some steady light rain, with a few brief periods of moderate showers mixed in.  As of now (8:00pm) it is still raining lightly at my location in the upper part of town.  Temperature profiles would indicate the rain/snow line to be somewhere around 2200m or thereabouts.

Sunshine up until just before 10:00am boosted my high temp to 54.5ºF/12.5ºC, but then temperatures plummeted during the late morning and throughout the afternoon and evening -- all the way down to around 37ºF/3ºC right around 7:00pm.  It has definitely been the most active and interesting day, weather-wise, since our big rain/snow event back on the 11th-13th of December.

This system is a fast-mover, and will depart to the east overnight, taking nearly all of the precipitation with it.  I think there's a good chance we could see a return to sunshine by mid-day tomorrow, though our temps will remain colder than we've seen recently -- all the way into the weekend.

Monday, January 22, 2018

a shot at some precipitation... (pm.22.jan.18)>

It's been noticeably cooler the last 24 hours, as the high pressure ridge responsible for a big bubble of very mild temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere breaks down.  An upper-level low pressure circulation moving into central Pakistan tonight is the culprit, and this system will be pushing into Rajasthan by tomorrow (Tue) morning, and then into western Nepal by Wednesday morning.  We're already getting a preliminary taste of some colder air, but we can expect temps to fall even further as the week goes on.

There's not much moisture being pulled into this system, but the last few runs of various computer models are showing a little better chance of a period or two of some light to moderate precipitation in our general area between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning.  At this point, it's looking like there's a chance of some heavier rain showers to our south, and some heavier rain/snow to our east, lasting through Wednesday.  This is NOT a major storm system, but it's more excitement than we've seen since the middle of December, so it's worth watching.

Sunday, January 21, 2018

shifting pattern this week... (pm.21.jan.18)>

An unusually potent upper-level high pressure ridge has provided us with a very stable atmosphere and unseasonably mild temperatures the last few days -- along with instigating a strong inversion which is trapping a shallow layer of colder air and smog in the lower elevations to our south on the plains of north India.  Temperatures today cooled off just a bit, but yesterday and last night, temps were shockingly high for the dead-center of our winter season.

There is a pattern change on the way, however, in the form of a rather strong upper-level low pressure center now rolling into Afghanistan.  This system will cause the high pressure ridge in place to collapse dramatically between Monday and early Wednesday -- allowing more seasonably cold air to spill into Himalayan north India.  Unfortunately there still doesn't appear to be much of a moisture-tap available for this system, so only random and/or widely scattered light precipitation is expected -- between late Tuesday and about noon on Wednesday.  I would love to report a change to that outlook, and will do so if rain/snow chances in our area start to look better.

Friday, January 19, 2018

january's absence... (pm.19.jan.18)>

I'm curious to see just how high our temperatures might surge over the weekend, as an even warmer air mass builds across the northwestern quarter of India.  In addition to the extremely mild temps, we're talking about a dry atmosphere as well, so humidity levels should be generally in the 25-35% range here in our general area.

By Monday, a rather deep upper-level low pressure system will be on approach from the west-southwest.  However, at this point, it doesn't look like it is going to be able to tap into much moisture... and even when/if it does, most of that moisture will be shunted just to our south-southeast as the upper-level system pivots past us on Tuesday and Wednesday.  I'm keeping a slight risk of some random light shower action during that time frame, but significant precipitation is not looking good for us.  Let's see if that outlook changes.

A turn to cooler weather should accompany this system for a few days, even if we don't get the rain/snow we desperately need.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

balmy weekend coming... (pm.18.jan.18)>

This January has been totally dry thus far, but it has also featured some of the mildest/warmest temps for the month that I've recorded since I started this blog nearly eight years ago.  We've had a couple of brief spells of cooler temperatures, but for the most part we've been able to bask in balmy weather that is more like mid-late November than January.

Yet another warmer air mass is now pressing into north India, in the form of a moderate ridge of high pressure in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  It is rare that I record a 60ºF/16ºC temp at my location in the upper part of McLeod Ganj during the very middle of the winter season, but that distinct possibility exists over the coming weekend.  Those mild temps should be accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine as well.

However -- a more unstable pattern is now showing up on computer model depictions starting late Tuesday, along with a turn to cooler temps and at least a slight chance of some precipitation.  

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

moisture-deprived... (pm.16.jan.18)>

Today's high temp (59.7F/15.4C) at my location just below the mountaineering center was the warmest of the month.

Since about the 20th of December, our weather pattern has been dominated by a 'zonal' flow in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  This is the most stable pattern during the winter season in our part of the world... and has kept us from receiving even a trace of precipitation in several weeks.  With embedded weak disturbances riding along that west-to-east flow we've seen a few waves of high cloudiness, and several moderate temperature fluctuations.  But for the most part, it has been a very quiet and boring stretch of weather... during the time of year when many of us are eagerly waiting for winter storms bringing significant amounts of rain and snowfall to Himalayan north India.

A deep upper-level low pressure circulation is now being forecast by computer models to swing from Afghanistan and southern Pakistan into west-northwestern India about one week from now... and that could be a pattern-changer for the latter part of the month.  No guarantees... but any hint of precipitation is something to carefully watch...

Friday, January 12, 2018

uneventful... (pm.12.jan.18)>

The weak upper-level disturbance swinging across Himalayan north India the last 36 hours has now scooted east-southeast of us, and has taken an extensive area of high cloudiness with it.  It was nice to see the return of the sunshine this afternoon... although a cooler air mass has been filtering in since around 3-4pm.  There was no rain/snow anywhere close to us... and it has now been exactly one month since we've had measurable precipitation in McLeod Ganj.

All model data is showing a totally flat and uneventful weather pattern all across the Indian subcontinent during the coming week to ten days or so... which should significantly prolong our already month-long dry streak.  I have watched each run of the various computer models a couple of times a day, as the dangling carrot of some kind of mid-winter storm system keeps moving further into the future.  Now, there are some indications of a developing system towards the latter five or six days of the month, but I'm not in a mood to place great faith in that projection.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

dry and pleasant... (pm.09.jan.18)>

Temperatures today have been the mildest since the 29th of December, and thus obviously, the warmest of 2018.  A long-wave ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching across the western Himalayas is responsible for this unseasonably mild weather -- though it is also responsible for an inversion which is trapping a shallow layer of colder air, fog and smog, in the lower elevations to our south.

This recent warming trend will continue tomorrow (Wed), but we could see some high cloudiness streaming in from the west which would dim our sunshine potential on Thursday.  That high cloudiness will be in association with a weak upper-level disturbance scheduled for late Thursday into Friday... though precipitation is not expected in our area.

According to the latest extended range computer model data, there are still hints of some kind of moderate storm system by the middle of next week, and we will eagerly and enthusiastically keep an eye on that...

Sunday, January 7, 2018

milder temps ahead... (pm.07.jan.18)>

It's now been more than three and half weeks -- the morning of the 13th of December -- since we've had any precipitation here in McLeod.  The weather pattern remains extremely docile and calm and quiet, and should remain that way for at least the next week.  In fact, we should experience a noticeable warming trend effective immediately, which will last into Thursday, as a moderate ridge of high pressure aloft builds across northern India.

As I've mentioned several times, the models have been really fickle about potential pattern shifts/changes during the middle of the month -- but at least as of this evening, there is only a fast-moving and middling type of weather system forecast to tempt us with some precipitation around the 18th-19th.  I am very disappointed in our rain/snow chances -- to say the least.  Still waiting and watching.

Thursday, January 4, 2018

only minor issues... (pm.04.jan.18)>

An upper-level disturbance is swinging in from the northwest tonight, and with its accompanying moisture and colder air aloft, it has produced a significant amount of cloudiness across Himalayan north India since late this afternoon.  There will likely be some snow squalls/showers in the higher elevations north-northeast of us overnight into mid-day Friday... but the risk of measurable precipitation here in McLeod is very slight.

After this disturbance scoots east of us by late Friday, there should be very little happening all the way into the latter part of next week.  Temperatures, which are on the cool side right now, might cool off even more during the first part of the weekend, but a gradual warming trend is expected by Monday.

Models have been incredibly inconsistent after about the 12th-13th of the month, but the latest solutions show something of interest -- in terms of a shot at some significant precipitation -- during the mid-month period.  Check back here for updates on that.

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

mid-winter calm... (pm.02.jan.18)>

I am dying to bring news of something different... as we are getting into the middle of the winter season, and another healthy round of rain and mountain snowfall is already overdue.  However, there is nothing of the sort in our immediate future, even though we do have a minor disturbance on the way late Thursday and Friday, which could bring some light snow showers to the higher elevations north and northeast of us.

Prospects of some kind of more significant winter storm system after the 11th-12th of the month have evaporated -- according to the latest computer model runs -- but we shall keep watch as January continues to unfold.

There are tabs above where you can find more specific local data/forecast info...